This paper presents a fear theory of the economy, based on the interplay between fear of rare disasters and the interest rate on safe assets. To do this, I study the macroeconomic consequences of government-administered interest rates in the neoclassical real business cycle model. When the...

We use a decomposition methodology to analyze the factors underlying the differentiated output losses of European countries in 2020. Our findings are fourfold: First, 2020 growth outcomes can be explained by differences in mobility, underlying growth trends, and pre-pandemic country...

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for...

The output gap, while inherently unobservable, plays a pivotal role in informing policymakers due to its significant implications for forecasting inflation rates and understanding the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission. Traditional filters frequently employed in estimating the output gap...

Global climate issues are a serious impediment to green and sustainable urban development. The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of structural change on urbanization in terms of population, energy, industry, and economics while accounting for per capita carbon emissions. In this...

From 1980 through 2020, the rate of population growth declined in both China and India, but the decline was far more pronounced in China. During the same period, per capita income increased substantially in both China and India, but the increase was far more pronounced in China. The fact that...

Over the last thirty years Burundi''s low economic growth has led to a significant decline in per capita GDP. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on supply-side constraints that prevented Burundi''s economy from growing faster. Lack of investment, civil conflict, economic inefficiencies,...