comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

Factor Forests (DFF) for macroeconomic forecasting, which synthesize the recent machine learning, dynamic factor model and … proposed in Zeileis, Hothorn and Hornik (2008). DFTs and DFFs are non-linear and state-dependent forecasting models, which … powerful tree-based machine learning ensembles conditional on the state of the business cycle. The out-of-sample forecasting …