In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate...

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles coincide. Recent papers_new suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit...

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably overtime. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation ispartially...

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980—2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...

We investigate the cyclicality of the private savings to GDP ratio for a panel of 19 OECD countries over the period 1971-2009. We find robust evidence that the private savings ratio is countercyclical. Three theories unambiguously predict a higher private savings ratio during recessions: a...

We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes 'depressions' and 'booms' from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle between...

We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual...

Die deutsche Industrie hat den Produktionsrückgang vom Jahresende 2012 in den ersten neun Monaten des laufenden Jahres fast wieder wettgemacht. Das Vorjahresniveau wird sie im Gesamtjahr 2013 dennoch knapp verfehlen, um voraussichtlich rund 0,5 Prozent. Sollte der Aufschwung im Euroraum im...

Fiscal positions of African countries have improved significantly during the past decade. Higher economic growth, better terms of trade, improved donor support notably through debt relief and better control of expenditure contributed to this improvement. But at the same time government revenue...

In this work, we study the short- and long-run properties of different inequality series vis-à-vis the most important macroeconomic series for a set of OECD countries. We employ standard tools of time series macro-econometrics (e.g. stationarity tests, detrending, co-movements analysis,...