This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

We explore in this paper cubature formulas over the space of functions having a first continuous derivative, i.e., C^1. We show that known cubature formulas are not optimal in this case and explain what is the origin of the loss of optimality and how to construct optimal ones; to illustrate we...

Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of...

We explore in this paper cubature formulas over the space of functions having a first continuous derivative, i.e., C^1. We show that known cubature formulas are not optimal in this case and explain what is the origin of the loss of optimality and how to construct optimal ones; to illustrate we...

This report is an effort to document some quantitative results on the possibility of introducing CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> reduction policies. It concludes that even for an industrialised country with a very efficient energy system that implies high carbon taxes, enough options are available to reduce carbon taxes to...</small></sub>

This paper considers interest rate term structure models in a market attracting both continuous and discrete types of uncertainty. The event-driven noise is modelled by a Poisson random measure. Using as numeraire the growth optimal portfolio, interest rate derivatives are priced under the...

In this paper, I analyze the business cycle properties of remittances and output series for three pairs of countries: United States-Mexico, United States-El Salvador, and Germany-Turkey. Using an unobserved components state-space model (via the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition), I decompose the...

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, the authors first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models....

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.

We develop a multi-sector sticky-price DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages induce across-sector pricing complementarities that contribute to a slow...