We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. Market forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy are affected by news, and our estimation links the two effects. This enables us to estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form...

An earlier version of this article was delivered as a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York, May 18, 2011.

Quantitative Easing (QE) Conference. 30 June 2011, St. Louis, MO

Attitudes about foreign-exchange-market intervention in the United States evolved in tandem with views about monetary policy as policy makers grappled with the perennial problem of having more economic objectives than independent instruments with which to achieve them. This paper—the...

The FOMC’s two-pronged approach involves a potential conflict: forward guidance assumes a high degree of substitutability across the maturity structure, while quantitative easing assumes a low degree.

On balance, the figure suggests that structural unemployment during economic downturns has increased since 1991.