Official adjustments of the budget balance to the cycle assume that the only category of gov-ernment spending that responds automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. But estimates show otherwise. Payments for pensions, sickness, subsistence, invalidity, childcare and subsidies of...

An understanding of the determination of real wages is crucial in analysing the determination of the natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU. Uses cointegration techniques to examine a core theoretical model of the long-run determinants of real wages involving unit labour costs, unemployment,...

Conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment. Using the Dixit-Pindyck model, we find that there are situations where this does happen; and situations where it does not – i.e. increasing uncertainty leads to more investment. It depends...

In this paper we examine financial interactions between tiers of government. Whilst most existing empirical evidence has focused on the US, it is difficult to generalize conclusions obtained to countries where the position and remit of lower tiers of government is evolving or is less clear...

In this paper, the authors estimate the marginal rate of substitution between aggregate nondurable consumption and government expenditure using U.S. data from 1953 to 1993. This estimate is an important input to any attempt to assess the overall effectiveness of fiscal policy since it directly...

This paper elucidates hysteresis using a simple model of market entry and exit. A procedure for calculating hysteresis indices for economic time series is outlined. Some preliminary results assess the explanatory power of hysteresis variables in determining the equilibrium rate of unemployment...