We identify a natural way of ordering functions, which we call the interval dominance order and develop a theory of monotone comparative statics based on this order. This way of ordering functions is weaker then the standard one based on the single crossing property (Milgrom and Shannon, 1994)...

In the application of autoregressive models the order of the model is often estimated using either a sequence of likelihood ratio tests or a likelihood based information criterion. The consistency of such procedures has been discussed extensively under the assumption that the characteristic...

A generalized version of the capital management problem posed in a classic paper by R. H. Strotz is analyzed for the case of the "naive" planner who fails to anticipate any impending change in his own preferences. By imposing progressively stronger restrictions on the primitives of the problem...

Estimated characteristic roots in stationary autoregressions are shown to give rather noisy information about their population equivalents. This is remarkable given the central role of the characteristic roots in the theory of autoregressive processes. In the asymptotic analysis the problems...

We consider forecasting using a combination, when no model coincides with a non-constant data generation process (DGP). Practical experience suggests that combining forecasts adds value, and can even dominate the best individual device. We show why this can occur when forecasting models are...

We examine the impact of the normality assumption, together with the weak axiom, in three related areas of general equilibrium theory. Most obviously, these properties have important implications for equilibrium comparative statics, in the context of exchange, production or (incomplete)...

In an environment in which both buyers and sellers can undertake match specific investments, the presence of market competition for matches may solve hold-up and coordination problems generated by the absence of complete contingent contracts. In particular, this paper shows that when marching is...

The swiftness and devastating impact of recent financial crises have taken many market participants by surprise, and pose challenges for economists seeking a theory of the onset of a crisis. We propose such a theory based on two features. The actions of diverse economic actors which undermine...