In this paper we introduce a decomposition of the joint distribution of price changes of assets recorded trade--by--trade. Our decomposition means that we can model the dynamics of price changes using quite simple and interpretable models which are easily extended in a great number of...

In this paper we provide a systematic study of the robustness of probability limits and central limit theory for realised multipower variation when we add finite activity and infinite activity jump processes to an underlying Brownian semimartingale.

Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN) time series models are introduced for the econometric analysis of the dynamics of a large cross-section of prices in which contemporaneous observations are functionally related. A semiparametric FSN model is developed in which a smooth, cubic spline signal...

In this paper we obtain a closed form expression for the convergence rate of the Gibbs sampler applied to an AR(1) plus noise model in terms of the parameters of the model. We also provide evidence that a ``centered'' parameterisation of a state space model is preferable for the performance of...

This paper introduces a non-parametric binary classification tree approach to inferring unobserved strategies from the observed actions of economic agents. The strategies are in the form of possibly nested if-then statements. We apply our approach to experimental data from the repeated ultimatum...

Non-Gaussian processes of Ornsetin-Uhlenbeck type, or OU processes for short, offer the possibility of capturing important distributional deviations from Gaussianity and for flexible modeling of dependence structure. This paper develops this potential, drawing on and extending powerful results...

A new game theoretic analysis of finite horizon, complete information bargaining is advanced. The extensive form reflects an attempt to model unstructured negotiations, in which the negotiants can gain no artificial advantage from the details of the bargaining protocol. Conditions are identified...