This paper is a first attempt to garner the theory and evidence on the political economy of the first wave of financial liberalisation during the nineteenth and early twentieth century, and of its demise after World War I. Not everyone gained from the process of globalisation (of trade, labour,...

Between the 1870s and World War II, falls in world shipping costs and Western industrialisation gave rise to export-led Southeast Asian growth and specialization in a narrow range of primary commodity exports. A linked development was the emergence of a few dominant Southeast Asian urban...

This paper challenges the growing consensus in the literature (Stone, 2005; Dodds, 2007) that medieval English peasants and manorial managers were price responsive in their production decisions. Using prices of and acreages planted with wheat, barley, and oats on 49 manors held by the bishop of...

We examine the impact of the Great Depression on the share of votes for right- wing anti-system parties in elections in the 1920s and 1930s.We confirm the existence of a link between political extremism and economic hard times as captured by growth or contraction of the economy.What mattered was...

The paper presents trade policy as in line with that of other continental European powers, with a move to moderate levels of tariff protection for politically sensitive sectors such as steel and textiles and clothing, but also in agriculture, with levels of protection falling slightly before the...

This paper provides a historical look at how the multilateral trading system has coped with the challenge of shocks and shifts. By shocks we mean sudden jolts to the world economy in the form of financial crises and deep recessions, or wars and political conflicts. By shifts we mean slow-moving,...

Estimating the covariance and correlation between assets using high frequency data is challenging due to market microstructure effects and Epps effects. In this paper we extend Xiu’s univariate QML approach to the multivariate case, carrying out inference as if the observations arise from an...

This is a draft Chapter from a book by the authors on “L´evy Driven Volatility Models”.

Likelihood based estimation of the parameters of state space models can be carried out via a particle filter. In this paper we show how to make valid inference on such parameters when the model is incorrect. In particular we develop a simulation strategy for computing sandwich covariance...

The classical Chow (1960) test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point specied in advance. In this paper we consider two generalisations, the 1-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentized recursive residuals) and its supremum...