In the classical Condorcet jury model, different jurors' votes are independent random variables, where each juror has the same probability p1/2 of voting for the correct alternative. The probability that the correct alternative will win under majority voting converges to 1 as the number of...

We infer unobserved strategies from the observed actions of buyers in posted-offer market experiments to evaluate their effectiveness against a monopolist. While the strategies of one-quarter of the buyers in our experiments correspond to the game-theoretic prediction of passive price-taking,...

A convergence model in which welath accumulation is sibject to i.i.d. random shocks is examined. The accumulation function shows what kt+1 - wealth at t+1 - would be given kt and with no shock. it has a positive slope, but its concavity or convexity is indeterminate. The focus is the ergodic...

We consider kernel-based estimators of integrated variances in the presence of independent market microstructure effects. We derive the bias and variance properties for all regular kernel-based estimators and derive a lower bound for their asymptotic variance. Further we show that the...

In this paper we will rigourously study some of the properties of continuous time stochastic volatility models. We have five main results, including: the stochastic volatility class can be linked to Cox process based models of tick-by-tick financial data; we characterise the moments,...

When firms attempt to manage their earnings disclosures by presenting evidence selectively, sophisticated inference on the part of financial market participants entails a positive association between the market to bood ratio of a firm and the skewness of the distribution of its announced...

The availability of intra-data on the prices of speculative assets means that we can use quadratic variation like measures of activity in financial markets, called realised volatility, to study the stochastic properties of returns. Here we derive the moments and the asymptotic distribution of...

Should arbitrators adjudicate on the basis of their own investigations, or invite the interested parties to make their cases and decide on the basis of the information so gathered?

We propose a new measure of risk, based entirely on downwards moves measured using high frequency data. Realised semivariances are shown to have important predictive qualities for future market volatility. The theory of these new measures is spelt out, drawing on some new results from...