GARCH models are commonly used as latent processes in econometrics, financial economics and macroeconomics. Yet no exact likelihood analysis of these models has been provided so far. In this paper we outline the issues and suggest a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm which allows the calculation...

The paper examines some implications of the wholly reasonable assumption that the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (the EIS) increases with the level of consumption. Then the rich find it easier to substitute future consumption for present consumption than do the poor. In the empirical...

It is a widely encountered misconception that the vector of spreads between longer-term interest rates and the short rate is stationary under the Expectations Theory (ET). By considering a complete term structure of maturities it is shown that the ET determines the conditional mean of the VAR...

Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated large shifts in deterministic factors,'sensible' agents should adopt 'robust forecasting rules'. Unless the model coincides with the generating mechanism, one cannot even prove that causal variables will dominate non-causal in forecasting. In such a...

The existence of intergenerational spillovers to public investments in schooling is often assumed in policy discussions regarding economic development. However, few studies to date have forwarded convincing evidence that externalities exist for developing countries. In this paper, we address...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

Financial assets' quoted prices normally change through frequent revisions, or jumps. For markets where quotes are almost always revised by the minimum price tick, this paper proposes a new estimator of Quadratic Variation which is robust to microstructure effects. It compares the number of...

In this paper we present a general result concerning the convergence to stochastic integrals with non-linear integrands. The key finding represents a generalization of Chan and Wei's (1988) Theorem 2.4 and that of Ibragimov and Phillips' (2004) Theorem 8.2. This result is necessary for analysing...

What should be the West's top priority for climate-change policy? This article is a revised and updated version of my talk to the Potsdam Global Sustainability Symposium (which drafted the "Potsdam Declaration" presented to the 2007 UN Climate Change Conference in Bali).