I examine the econometric and behavioral implications of including human capital in the life-cycle labor supply model. With human capital, the wage no longer equals the opportunity cost of time – which is, instead, the wage plus returns to work experience. This has a number of important...

Reserving in general insurance is often done using chain-ladder-type methods. We propose a method aimed at situations where there is a sudden change in the economic environment affecting the policies for all accident years in the reserving triangle. It is shown that methods for forecasting...

Motivated by features of low latency data in finance we study in detail discrete-valued Levy processes as the basis of price processes for high frequency econometrics. An important case of this is a Skellam process, which is the difference of two independent Poisson processes. We propose a...

I will argue for a simpler, fairer, more fiscally responsible and flexible form of university funding and student support. This system is designed to encourage a diverse higher education sector where high quality provision can flourish. The main points of the new system are: 1. Make student...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests. The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable, are...

This paper uses data from the 1833 Factory Inquiry to assess male and female occupations and earnings in factory textile production. This is contrasted with evidence drawn from various sources on male and female employment in domestic industry. 1780-1850 was a period of dramatic change in the...

We review recent asymptotic results on some robust methods for multiple regres- sion. The regressors include stationary and non-stationary time series as well as polynomial terms. The methods include the Huber-skip M-estimator, 1-step Huber-skip M-estimators, in particular the Impulse Indicator...

Age-period-cohort models for Lexis diagrams are considered. The identi- cation problem is addressed by reparametrizing the models in terms of freely varying parameters. The reparametrisation covers all three Lexis diagrams. A new plot of the unidentied time eects is suggested and interpreted....

Existing theories of pre-emptive war typically predict that the leading country may choose to launch a war on a follower who is catching up, since the follower cannot credibly commit to not use their increased power in the future. But it was Japan who launched a war against the West in 1941, not...