We examine the statistical power of fundamental and behavioral factors with regards to stock returns of the Dow Jones Industrials Index. With a novel sentiment dataset from over 3.6 million Reuters news articles, we find signifcant correlations between Reuters senti- ment and stock returns. We...

We perform principal components analyses of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment and TV sentiment in order to gain information on their structure and information content. By introducing the new sentiment variable TV sentiment, gathered from sentiment from statements from over...

This study analyzes how competition affects price stickiness at the micro level. On the theoretical side, I develop what I call a micro Phillips curve, i.e. a product-specific relation between inflation and economic activity conditional on inflation expectations. I find two opposing effects of...

The Doha multilateral round of trade negotiations sponsored by the WTO has been dragging on for over a decade, with no end in sight. In this short paper we assess empirically what determines the duration of trade negotiations, focusing on the span between the start of trade talks and their...

This paper investigates the causal influence of export concentration on measures of aggregate volatility. Geographically disadvantaged coun- tries often have a concentrated export structure which makes them more vulnerable to external shocks. Identifying causal effects of export concen- tration...

This paper first discusses concepts, definitions and theoretical explanations for international business cycles. This is followed by an overview of previous empirical studies. We then argue that for ex post analyses the output gap is a univariate quantification of the business cycle that is...

The paper complements entry mode research by dealing with the choice of alternative modes of governance in the specific case of foreign R&D and its impact on a parent firm’s performance. Firstly, we identify the factors that determine whether a firm locates abroad any R&D activities, and, if...

We analyze how budgetary institutions affect government budget deficits in member states of the European Union during 1984-2003 employing new indicators provided by Hallerberg et al. (2009). Using panel fixed effects models, we examine whether the impact of budgetary institutions on budget...

In this study we construct the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. To the best of our knowledge, this has never been done before. We evaluate the extent to which the inclusion of the index contributes to more accurate forecasts of GDP growth compared with a benchmark autoregressive model. We...

This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...