This paper examines the impact that payment splitting could have upon the liquidity requirements and efficiency of a large-value payment system, such as the United Kingdom’s CHAPS. Using the Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement Simulator and real UK payments data we find that payment...

Using an endogenous portfolio choice model, this paper examines how different monetary policy regimes can lead to different foreign currency positions by changing the cyclical properties of the nominal exchange rate. We find that strict inflation-targeting regimes are associated with a short...

A commonly held view is that the life of a monetary policy maker forced to operate under discretion can be improved by the authorities delegating monetary policy objectives that are different from the social welfare function (including interest rate smoothing, price-level targeting and...

We examine how to forecast after a recent break. We consider monitoring for change and then combining forecasts from models that do and do not use data before the change; and robust methods, namely rolling regressions, forecast averaging over different windows and exponentially weighted moving...

Empirical evidence suggests that risk premia are higher at business cycle troughs than they are at peaks. Existing asset pricing theories ascribe moves in risk premia to changes in volatility or risk aversion. Nevertheless, in a simple general equilibrium model, risk premia can be procyclical...

Structured credit instruments offer an insight into markets’ perceptions of the extent of future credit defaults. Claims of different seniorities incur losses only if defaults reach different magnitudes, so their relative value offers an insight into the likelihood of losses being of different...

This paper studies optimal policy in a stylised New Keynesian model that is extended to incorporate imperfect substitutability between short-term and long-term bonds. This simple modification provides a channel through which asset purchases by the policy maker can affect aggregate demand....

We demonstrate how the introduction of liability-side feedbacks affects the properties of a quantitative model of systemic risk. The model is known as RAMSI and is still in its development phase. It is based on detailed balance sheets for UK banks and encompasses macro-credit risk, interest and...

Gertler and Karadi combined financial intermediation and credit policy in a DSGE framework. We estimate their model with UK data using Bayesian techniques. To validate the fit, we evaluate the model’s empirical properties. Then we analyse the transmission mechanism of the shocks, set to...

This paper outlines the properties of one of the models used at the Bank of England for analysing the impact of energy prices on the UK economy. We build a dynamic general equilibrium model that includes a variety of channels through which energy prices affect demand and supply. On the demand...