This paper adopts a new approach to stress testing the UK banking system. We attempt to account for the dynamics between banks' write-offs and key macroeconomic variables, through conditioning our stress test on the historical correlation between the variables and allowing for feedback effects...

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and encompasses the sampling uncertainty of both the estimates...

In this paper the financial policies and balance sheet adjustment of companies are examined. Using a large panel of quoted UK firms, models for dividends, new equity issuance and investment are estimated, relating them to debt adjustment. The results suggest that while dividends are sticky in...

This paper examines the link between currency areas and customs unions. The size of a bloc of countries practising some form of co-ordination of monetary policy is limited by the incentive to free-ride that formation of the bloc creates. However, when the threat of a trade war is introduced, the...

We derive a general joint affine term structure model of US government bond yields and the convenience yields on physical commodities. We apply this framework separately to oil and gold. Our results show clear links between bond and commodity markets, since bond factors play a significant role...

Financial institutions have for many years sought measures which cogently summarise the diverse market risks in portfolios of financial instruments. This quest led institutions to develop Value-at-Risk (VaR) models for their trading portfolios in the 1990s. Subsequently, so-called filtered...

We present new evidence on the structure of interbank connections in key markets: derivatives, marketable securities, repo, unsecured lending and secured lending. Taken together, these markets comprise two networks: a network of interbank exposures and a network of interbank funding. Network...

This paper derives the optimal lending contract in the financial accelerator model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (BGG). The optimal contract includes indexation to the aggregate return on capital, household consumption, and the return to internal funds. This triple indexation results in a...

This paper examines the behaviour of individual producer prices in the United Kingdom, and uncovers a number of stylised facts about pricing behaviour. First, on average 26% of producer prices change each month, although there is considerable heterogeneity between sectors and price changes occur...

Using a panel of UK firms spanning three decades, we provide estimates of the long-run elasticity of substitution between capital and other factors of production, the (negative of the) elasticity of capital and investment with respect to the user cost. The parameter is estimated using 'time...