If official interventions convey private information useful for price discovery in foreign-exchange markets, then they should have value as a forecast of near-term exchange-rate movements. Using a set of standard criteria, we show that approximately 60 percent of all U.S. foreign-exchange...

The United States all but abandoned its foreign-exchange-market intervention operations in late 1995, when they proved corrosive to the credibility of the Federal Reserve?s commitment to price stability. We view this decision as the culmination of the evolution of U.S. monetary policy over the...

This paper compares two approaches to the analysis of economic data: the exclusively econometric approach recommended by Hendry and Ericsson and the more eclectic approach that we employed in our books MONETARY HISTORY and MONETARY TRENDS. It concludes that the article by Hendry and Ericsson is...

The Federal Reserve has intervened in foreign exchange markets since 1962 as a partner of the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund. Departing from its scripted passive role under the Bretton Woods system, the US defense of the dollar under pegged exchange rates may not appear unreasonable. Why...