A time-varying stochastic devaluation risk is introduced in a model of exchange rate target zones. The model produces realistic patterns of covariation between exchange rates and interest rate differentials, which previous target zone models have been unable to do. A 'drift adjustment' method to...

The authors compare estimation of spot and implied forward interest rates from Swedish Treasury bill and government bond yields with two functional forms, the simple Nelson and Siegel (NS) and the complex Longstaff and Schwartz (LS). Monetary policy rather than financial analysis is in focus,...

International transmission of stochastic fiscal policy disturbances is examined in a two-country, general equilibrium framework, with possible excess supply equilibria with underutilization of resources. Nominal goods prices are sticky, although optimally set by firms in monopolistic...

"Forecast targeting", forward-looking monetary policy that uses central-bank judgment to construct optimal policy projections of the target variables and the instrument rate, may perform substantially better than monetary policy that disregards judgment and follows a given instrument rule. This...

We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables and unobservable "modes." The form of model uncertainty our framework...