In this paper a version of the rational expectations hypothesis is tested using fixed-event inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund...

This paper tests for unbiasedness in inflation expectations drawn from a survey of U.K. employees by Gallup. It focuses on the econometric difficulties presented by having a small sample, there being overlapping forecast horizons, and by trying to make inference when the data appear to be...

This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using 'fixed-event' inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund...

Although the target of monetary policy is clear, there have been suggestions that the conduct of monetary policy is improved by monitoring "trimmed mean" inflation rates, the mean of some central portion of the distribution of price changes. This paper assesses critically the theoretical and...

This paper quantifies for the United Kingdom the general equilibrium costs of individuals holding cash to economise on 'shopping time'. These are a subset of a wider range of costs caused by inflation. The paper tests whether or not money balances tend to a finite number as nominal interest...