This paper presents a time-varying parameter methodology for constructing an estimate of output gap for Turkey. We employ the extended Kalman filter technique in a multivariate setting in which economic content is utilized by the inclusion of inflation and output gap dynamics. As a by-product,...

[TR] Bu notta, TUFE ve UFE enflasyon oranlari arasindaki farklilasmanin nedenleri ozetlendikten sonra iki endeks arasindaki geciskenlik iliskisi incelenmektedir. Uretici fiyatlarinin vergi haric derleniyor olmasi ve hizmet fiyatlarini icermemesi, islenmemis gida urunleri ile tarim urunlerinin...

[TR] Bu calismada Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de çikti acigini temel bilesenlerine ayristiran bir çerçeve sunulmaktadir. Sonuclarimiz, Lehman krizini takip eden surecte Turkiye’de ic ve dis talep arasinda ciddi bir ayrisma yasanirken, ekonomi genelinde asiri bir isinma olmadigini...

In this study, an output gap measure is derived for the Turkish economy using an estimated New Keynesian model. Considering the ongoing structural transformation during the last decade, the model is estimated for 2002-2010 period using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that output, which...

[TR] Bu calisma, alternatif modeller kullanarak Turkiye’de doviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarinin cekirdek tuketici fiyatlari (islenmemis gida ve alkollu icecekler-tutun haric TUFE) uzerindeki etkisini (geciskenlik etkisi) incelemektedir. 2002-2011 donemi icin yapilan tahminler, geciskenligin bir...

Using a vector auto-regression (VAR) setup, we estimate the pass-through from exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in Turkey, and produce some stylized facts regarding the degree and the adjustment speed of the pass-through on several price measures. Estimations for two...

Turkiye’de son yillarda cari islemler aciginin yuksek seviyelerde dalgali bir seyir izlemesi ve buna paralel olarak gundeme gelen kirilganliklar, dis dengeyi makroekonomik istikrari saglamaya yonelik politikalarin merkezine oturtmaktadir. Cari islemler dengesine dair politika tasariminin...

Turkey’s high current account deficit has been at the core of macroeconomic policy discussions in recent years. Quantifying the role of cyclical factors in driving the current account fluctuations is essential for designing an appropriate policy response and evaluating the impact of policy...