Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential...

Standard theoretical models would predict that a currency depreciation generates an increase in net exports. However, recent emerging market crises, accompanied by sharp exchange rate devaluations, have often been followed by a fall in or a stagnation of exports. This paper provides a simple...

This paper studies the role of stabilization policy in a model where firm entry responds to shocks and uncertainty. We evaluate stabilization policy in the context of a simple analytically solvable sticky price model, where firms have to prepay a fixed cost of entry. The presence of endogenous...

In a variety of contexts - ranging from public goods provision to information collection - a player's well-being depends on own action as well as on the actions taken by his or her neighbors. We provide a framework to analyze such strategic interactions when neighborhood structure, modeled in...

We develop a simple model of the interbank market where banks trade a long term, safe asset. We show that when there is a lack of opportunities for banks to hedge aggregate and idiosyncratic liquidity shocks, the interbank market is characterized by excessive price volatility. In such a...

In countries such as Germany, the legal system is such that firms are necessarily stakeholder oriented. In others like Japan social convention achieves a similar effect. We analyze the advantages and disadvantages of stakeholder-oriented firms that are concerned with employees and suppliers...

A comprehensive study of the linkages between demographic and economic variables should not only account for vintage specificity but also incorporate the relevant economic and demographic decisions in a complete optimal control set-up. In this paper, a methodological set-up allowing to reach...

I extend DeGraba's model of buying frenzies. I identify conditions under which buying frenzies are the only possible equilibrium and under which rationing occurs in equilibrium

Technological knowledge and organizational knowledge are distinguished in order to define economic competence formally. This definition is made operational in the simplest possible linear model of production. Productivity gains are shown to originate from changes in organizational capabilities...

This paper considers the dynamic evolution of algorithmic (recursive) learning rules in a normal form game. It is shown that the system - the population frequencies - is globally stable for any arbitrary N-player normal form game, if the evolutionary process is algorithmic and the "birth...