We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...

Factor analysis performed on a panel of 23 nominal exchange rates from January 1999 to December 2010 yields three common factors. This paper identifies the euro/dollar, Swiss- franc/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates as empirical counterparts to these common factors. These empirical factors...

Using novel real-time data on a broad set of economic fundamentals for five major US dollar exchange rates over the recent float, we employ a predictive procedure that allows the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals to evolve over time in a very general fashion. Our key findings...