Does more education really mean less poverty and less inequality? How much less? What are the transmission mechanisms? This paper presents the results of a micro-simulation exercise for the Brazilian State of Ceará, which suggests that broad-based policies aimed at increasing educational...

In light of the market microstructure literature, we have compared the two main FX markets in Brazil: the spot market and the futures market (the next to mature contract). Our objective is to identify in which market FX rate is determined. We analyze FX markets at its micro level: its...

Starting with Lehman Brother’s demise in September 2008, the Brazilian real fell 42% vis-à-vis the US dollar. Such large exchange rate depreciation would typically cheer exporters up. However, it was later found that many export firms, including multibillion dollar ones, had suffered large...

Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, Smooth Transition Regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for...

Entre o final de janeiro de 1961 e 31 de março de 1964, o Brasil viveu um período de singular turbulência política, assistiu a única experiência parlamentarista da era republicana, teve três presidentes, cinco chefes de governo e seis ministros da Fazenda. A rotação no comando da...

In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and variance of the short-term interest rate process. The estimation of such models is addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are derived. Model specification is also...

While cross-country analysis suggests that corruption hinders economic growth, we have little evidence on the mechanisms that link corruption to long-run economic development. We provide micro-evidence on the consequences of corruption for the quality of education. We use data from the auditing...

Using the different response timings of credit demand and supply, we isolate supply shifts after monetary policy shocks. We show that the bank lending channel exists in Brazil: after an increase (decrease) in the basic interest rate (Selic), banks reduce (increase) the quantity of new loans and...

This paper surveys the formation and development of insurance business in Brazil. It describes its very first steps, from the colonial times and imperial era to recent events. Particular attention is given to regulatory changes, showing how they evolved in response to macroeconomic shocks that...

In 2004, Brazil provided an interesting natural experiment concerning personal credit. A new law was enacted allowing banks to offer loans with repayment through automatic payroll or social security benefit deduction, thus removing a significant part of the moral hazard problem by eliminating...