Following the Arab-Spring protests, we examine macroeconomic interactions between a productive firm and a rent-seeking government characterized by a continuous probability of regime shift. The model is able to rationalize the early growth leaps witnessed in many Arab economies (the “Social...

Most growth models imply positive impacts on economic growth from greater openness. And a key factor linking openness and growth is the efficiency with which resources are used. Empirically, however, the efficiency impacts of trade have been ambiguous. Using a stochastic frontier analysis, we...

Despite the evidence on incomplete financial markets and substantial risk being borne by innovators, current models of growth through creative destruction predominantly model innovators as risk neutral. Risk aversion is expected to reduce the incentive to innovate and we might fear that without...

This paper presents a fast, simple and intuitive algorithm for simulation of linear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with inequality constraints. The algorithm handles both the computation of impulse responses, and stochastic simulation, and can deal with arbitrarily many bounded...

We propose new bootstrap methods for the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) and Andersen et al. (2012) tests for jumps, as well as for the realized bipower variation and the median realized variation.1 Both the i.i.d. and the Wild bootstrap are considered. We prove CLT-type results for the...

This paper tests for contagion firstly, within the Euro Area (EA thereafter), and secondly from the US to the EA. Using 'coexceedances' - the joint occurrences of extreme negative and positive returns in different countries in a given day - I define contagion within regions as the fraction of...

Issues surrounding exchange rates continue to fascinate both economists and political scientists. Although a relatively large literature has grown around attempting to explain the choice of exchange rate regime, empirical estimation has failed to find a generally satisfactory explanation of it....

The eurozone crisis has focused attention on what caused it, how it can be handled and what can be done to avoid future crises. Against this background all but two member states of the European Union have signed a draft treaty, the 'fiscal compact', that seeks to eliminate structural fiscal...

This paper considers aspects of the competitive selection process in China - firm entry, survival, and exit - in an important sector of manufacturing, looking in particular for changes resulting from the latest stage of reforms. Using industry survey data from a province in North-East China, we...

In seeking to make programs of economic reform supported by the IFIs more successful it is important to ensure that they are viable. Will governments be persuaded to participate? Will they complete the programs they negotiate? And will the IFIs be prepared to provide the resources? This paper...