Some recent developments in the macroeconometric analysis of time series are discussed in the light of Haavelmo (1944). Experimental design in econometrics is discussed and related to the case of passive observation. The general ideas are illustrated with an analysis of the long-run and...

We consider the risk premium demanded by a decision maker with wealth x in order to be indifferent between obtaining a new level of wealth y1 with certainty, or to participate in a lottery which either results in unchanged present wealth or a level of wealth y2 y1. We define the relative risk...

This paper reviews the main theories and evidence regarding the prehistoric shift from hunting and gathering to agriculture, an event which took place for the first time some 10,000 years ago. The transition, which is also known as the Neolithic Revolution, led to the rise of civilisation as we...

We investigate how imperfect competition affects the occurrence and the properties of endogenous, rational expectations business cycles in an overlapping generations model with constant returns to scale in production. The model has explicit product and labor markets all characterized by...

In this paper we apply the encompassing principle to test whether a model that has been estimated with seasonally adjusted data (SA) can encompass a model that is based on non-seasonllay adjusted (NSA) data. Building upon and extending the work på Ericsson, Hendry and Tran (1994) who analyze...

This paper documents the evolution of variables central to understanding the creation of an Atlantic Economy in wheat between the US and the UK in the nineteenth century. The cointegrated VAR model is then applied to the period 1838-1913 in order to find long-run relationships between these...

An infinitely repeated monetary policy game à la Barro and Gordon (1983) is considered. Before the game starts the government announces a policy rule. If there is a slight probability that government is honest and a slight probability that the government makes mistakes, then a sufficiently...

We study large finite club economies in which agents can belong to several clubs, and care about the characteristics of the other club members. Club memberships must be integer consistent in aggregate. We show that states in the approximate core can approximately be decentralized by prices for...

We report new results on a slightly generalized version of the classical learning process for games proposed by Brown (1951), and further analyzed by Robinson (1951), Miyasawa (1961) and Shapley (1964). the learning process rests on an exogenous prior distribution over strategies - a mixed...