Recent events suggest that uncertainty changes play a major role in U.S. labor market fluctuations. This study analyzes the impact of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics. Using a vector autoregression approach, we show that uncertainty shocks measured by stock market volatility have a...

We develop a multi-sectoral matching model to predict the impact of the lockdown on the US unemployment, considering the heterogeneity of workers to account for the contrasted impacts across various types of jobs. We show that separations and business closures that hit the workers with the first...

This study demonstrates that nonlinearities, coupled with worker heterogeneity, make it possible to reconcile the Diamond–Mortensen–Pissarides model with the labor market dynamics observed in the United States. Nonlinearities, induced by firings and downward real wage rigidities, magnify...

Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid, and higher-paid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational...

We propose a generalized susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model to track COVID-19 in Canadian provinces, taking into account the impact of the pandemics on unemployment. The model is based on a network representing provinces, where the contact between individuals from different...

I study a dynamic search-matching model with two-sided heterogeneity, a production complementarity that induces labor market sorting, and aggregate shocks. In response to a positive productivity shock, incentives to sort increase disproportionately. Firms respond by posting additional vacancies,...

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first-order equivalent in an economy with flexible incentive pay and...

We implement decompositions of cyclical unemployment in a large developing country using the conventional 3-states and a 4-states representation of the labor market, where in the latter we subdivide the employment state into formal and informal forms of employment. This allows a richer analysis...

We develop uncertainty indices for the United States and Australia based on freely accessible, real time Google Trends data. Our Google Trends Uncertainty (GTU) indices are found to be positively correlated to a variety of alternative proxies for uncertainty available for these two countries....

The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long-run implies that these phenomena can be analysed by separate branches of economics. The macro literature tries to explain inflation dynamics and estimates the NAIRU. The labour macro literature tries to explain...