There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

In this paper we introduce a small Keynesian model of economic growth which is centered around two advanced types of Phillips curves, one for money wages and one for prices, both being augmented by perfect myopic foresight and supplemented by a measure of the medium-term inflationary climate...

When the DGP is nested in the model, PcGets delivers high performance selection across different (unknown) states of nature. One of its steps involves sub-sample post-selection assessment, and here we consider its properties and investigate its practical application. The simulation results show...

The recent controversy over model selection in the context of `growth regressions' has led to some remarkably numerous `estimation' strategies, including 4 million regressions by Sala-i-Martin (1997b). Only one regression is really needed, namely the general unrestricted model, appropriately...

We examine the properties of automatic model selection, as embodied in PcGets, and evaluate its performance across different (unknown) states of nature. After describing the basic algorithm and some recent changes, we discuss the consistency of its selection procedures, then examine the extent...

Dieses Lehrbuch zur makroökonomischen Theorie betrachtet die Einkommens-, Zins- und Beschäftigungstheorie, die Analyse von Inflation und Unterbeschäftigung und die Wachstumstheorie durchgängig aus keynesianscher Sicht. Es konfrontiert die dabei erzielten Aussagen und Ergebnisse insbesondere...

Over the last three decades, the LSE methodology (see Hendry, 1993, for an overview) has emerged as a leading approach for pursuing econometrics. One of its main tenets is the concept of general-to-specific modelling: Starting from a general dynamic statistical model, which captures the...

That econometric methodology remains in dispute partly reflects the lack of clear evidence on alternative approaches. This paper reconsiders econometric model selection from a computer-automation perspective, focusing on general-to-specific reduction approaches, as embodied in the program PcGets...