Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. money demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an...

Even though pieces of empirical evidence individually may corroborate an economic theory, their joint existence may refute that same theory. Testing of rational expectations models provides a concrete illustration of this principle. Surprisingly, empirical refutation of a rational expectations...

Several studies have developed empirical models of U.K. money demand using the century of annual and phase-average data in Friedman and Schwartz (1982). The current paper evaluates key models from those studies, employing tests of constancy and encompassing. The evidence strongly favors an...

This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general; and these concepts are then applied to...