Models for a continuous risk outcome has a wide application in portfolio risk management and capital allocation. We introduce a family of interval distributions based on variable transformations. Densities for these distributions are provided. Models with a random effect, targeting a continuous...

The ability of Google Trends data to forecast the number of new daily cases and deaths of COVID-19 is examined using a dataset of 158 countries. The analysis includes the computations of lag correlations between confirmed cases and Google data, Granger causality tests, and an out-of-sample...

Sergey Aivazian was the head of my department at the Moscow School of Economics, but he was much more than that. He played an important role in my life, and he contributed to my studies devoted to copula modelling. This small memoir reports how this amazingly polite and smart scientist helped me...

Critical precondition for attaining growth and sustainable development is availability of a host of infrastructural facilities in adequate quantity and of reliable quality. The association between the latter and growth is well documented and a large number of theoretical propositions conclude...

In a simple form, the basic relationship that can be used while exponential neat, is given by the expression: (for t ≥ 2) Where: St = the adjusted values of the dynamic series; yt = the levels of the empiric series; St-1 = the adjusted value of the term t – 1; w = a constant of adjustment...

The aim of this paper is to raise concerns with the mathematical concept of the derivative as we know it. It raises concerns of accuracy. The paper is kept as simple as possible, solutions are always meant to be as simple as possible to be easily understood. The paper looks at linear and...

This paper develops a microeconomic model-based approach to forecast national information and communications technology expenditure that is helpful when only very short time-series are available. The model specification incorporates parameters for network effects and national e-readiness....

Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to forecast election outcomes. Our model, named PollyIssues, provides a forecast of the winner of...

This paper examines the performance of prediction intervals based on bootstrap for threshold autoregressive models. We consider four bootstrap methods to account for the variability of estimates, correct the small-sample bias of autoregressive coefficients and allow for heterogeneous errors....

This book describes the estimation and use of Klein Model I, including the formation of the individual equations, the data used for its estimation and the methodology of the construction and use of the model involving the MODLER software and an electronic computer