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Belief elicitation in experiments: is there a hedging problem?

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander K.; … - 2008

existing belief elicitation results, (ii) can we avoid potential hedging confounds? Our results instill confidence regarding … both issues. We propose an experimental design that eliminates hedging opportunities, and use this to test for the … empirical relevance of hedging effects in the lab. We find no evidence for hedging, comparing the standard hedging-prone" belief …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010269267

Belief Elicitation in Experiments : Is there a Hedging Problem?

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander Karl; … - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit <Bonn> - 2008

Belief elicitation in economics experiments usually relies on paying subjects according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in addition to payments for other decisions. Such incentives, however, allow risk-averse subjects to hedge with their stated beliefs against adverse outcomes of other...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005859637

Belief Elicitation in Experiments : Is There a Hedging Problem?

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander K.; … - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013325138

Belief elicitation : limiting truth telling with information on incentives

Danz, David; Vesterlund, Lise; Wilson, Alistair J. - 2020

Belief elicitation is central to inference on economic decision making. The recently introduced Binarized Scoring Rule (BSR) is heralded for its robustness to individuals holding risk averse preferences and for its superior performance when eliciting beliefs. Consequently, the BSR has become the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154890

Biases in beliefs : experimental evidence

Bauer, Dominik; Wolff, Irenaeus - 2019 - This version: 20th February, 2019

Many papers have reported behavioral biases in belief formation that come on top of standard game-theoretic reasoning. We show that the processes involved depend on the way participants reason about their beliefs. When they think about what everybody else or another "unspeci fied" individual is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012308290

Biases in belief reports

Bauer, Dominik; Wolff, Irenaeus - 2021 - This version: 11th January, 2021

Belief elicitation is important in many different felds of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs-in particular, whether the belief is about the participant's opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others-affects the processes involved in the formation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013341662

Do repeated game players detect patterns in opponents? Revisiting the Nyarko & Schotter belief elicitation experiment

Spiliopoulos, Leonidas - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008

The purpose of this paper is to reexamine the seminal belief elicitation experiment by Nyarko and Schotter (2002) under the prism of pattern recognition. Instead of modeling elicited beliefs by a standard weighted ﬁctitious play model this paper proposes a generalized variant of ﬁctitious...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005011947

Voluntary versus enforced team effort

Keser, Claudia; Montmarquette, Claude - In: Games 2 (2011) 3, pp. 277-301

We present a model where each of two players chooses between remuneration based on either private or team effort. Although at least one of the players has the equilibrium strategy to choose private remuneration, we frequently observe both players to choose team remuneration in a series of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752421

Vertical mergers, foreclosure and raising rivals' costs: Experimental evidence

Normann, Hans-Theo - 2010

The hypothesis that vertically integrated firms have an incentive to foreclose the input market because foreclosure raises its downstream rivals' costs is the subject of much controversy in the theoretical industrial organization literature. A powerful argument against this hypothesis is that,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302573

Preferences and beliefs in a sequential social dilemma: A within-subjects analysis

Blanco, Mariana; Engelmann, Dirk; Koch, Alexander K.; … - 2014

In empirical analyses of games, preferences and beliefs are typically treated as independent. However, if beliefs and preferences interact, this may have implications for the interpretation of observed behavior. Our sequential social dilemma experiment allows us to separate different interaction...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352459

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