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landscape. Uncertainty and perceptions are influential drivers when it comes to migration decisions, and yet, the literature … simultaneously associated with uncertainty perceptions. We leverage the British referendum of 2016 to leave the European Union as a … unique natural experiment to demonstrate how collective uncertainty, induced by national government policy, affects the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012263481
Both institutional quality and institutional stability have been argued to stimulate economic growth. But to improve institutional quality, a country must endure a period of institutional change, which implies at least a little and possibly a lot of institutional instability. We investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013208542
We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013351768
both raise welfare. Information provision is preferable when uncertainty is high, as information is more valuable at this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013356468
This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on the volatility of the Mexican peso U.S. dollar exchange rate for … of economic, political, and financial uncertainty, both domestic and international, as explicative variables. The main … results show that greater uncertainty leads to higher exchange rate volatility; measures of international uncertainty are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616384
What effect does political instability in the form of a potential secession from a political union have on business formation? Using new measures of business creation and political instability in Ireland during the late nineteenth-century, we test whether increased political instability arising...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012806778
This paper investigates the effects of uncertainty on the macro economy by replicating its micro effects on individual … the two scenarios through the empirical macroeconomic uncertainty index. The higher the macroeconomic uncertainty is, the … appropriate level of ambiguity aversion outperforms the benchmark model with no uncertainty in fitting the US output growth rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014469775
of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major … growing data uncertainty over the past decade for Euro area variables. As a robustness check, we reckon our results using US … data and additionally show that uncertainty calculations are robust towards changes in final revision definition. Moreover …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420867
We examine the impact of uncertainty on employment dynamics. Alternative measures of uncertainty are constructed based … stock price index, and fuel prices. Our results indicate that greater uncertainty has a negative impact on growth of … non-existent or weaker. Our results suggest that to truly understand the effects of uncertainty on employment dynamics, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010435797
uncertainty, much of which concerns the nation's fiscal policy. Intuition suggests that increased policy uncertainty likely has … of shocks due to policy uncertainty. This study uses industry data to explore whether policy uncertainty indeed affects … that can ultimately be attributed to federal government expenditures. The estimation results reveal that policy uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478889