Among Irving Fisher's many contributions to economics, one that is little noted and barely remembered is his emphasis on the economic importance of health. For the most part, his concern was in promoting healthy life styles. In addition, he made an early (perhaps the earliest) estimate of the...

This paper reports quarterly ex ante forecasts of macroeconomic activity for the U.S.A., Japan and Australia for the period 1995-1997. The forecasts are based on automated time series models of vector autoregressions (VAR's), reduced rank regressions (RRR's), error correction models (ECM's) and...

This paper studies the properties of maximum likelihood estimates of co-integrated systems. Alternative formulations of such models are considered including a new triangular system error correction mechanism. It is shown that full system maximum likelihood brings the problem of inference within...

An extensive literature in econometrics and in numerical analysis has considered the problem of evaluating the multiple integral P({bold B};mu,Omega) = integral_{a}^{b} n(v - mu, Omega)dv = E_{V}{bold 1}(V in {bold B}), where V is a m-dimensional normal vector with mean mu, covariance matrix ,...

Observability of an individual's excess demand function for assets and commodities as all prices and revenue vary suffices in order to recover his von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. This is generically the case, even when the asset market is incomplete and the cardinal utility indices...

Over 300 business people, labor leaders, business consultants, and counselors of unemployed people were interviewed during the recession of the early 1990's in order to learn why wages and salaries were declining in only a few firms. Employers believed that cutting pay would hurt employee...

In a previous paper (Shubik and Yao, 1988) we examined a multistage exchange economy with m perishable goods and one infinitely durable gold used as money. We considered an economy without credit and one with one hundred percent secured loans. In this paper we consider an economy with m(1) goods...

This paper considers series estimators of additive interactive regression (AIR) models. AIR models are nonparametric regression models that generalize additive regression models by allowing interactions between different regressor variables. They place more restrictions on the regression...

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in forward exchange market efficiency studies. The methods we use allow us to work explicitly with levels rather than differenced data. They are statistically robust to data distributions with heavy tails,...

This paper studies the use of the Jeffreys' prior in Bayesian analysis of the simultaneous equations model (SEM). Exact representations are obtained for the posterior density of the structural coefficient beta in canonical SEM's with two endogenous variables. For the general case with m...