This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined...

The World Bank and the IMF have adopted a debt sustainability framework (DSF) to evaluate the risk of debt distress in Low Income Countries (LICs). At the core of the DSF are empirically-based thresholds for each of five different measures of the debt burden (the “debt threshold...

This note outlines a scheme for mobilizing financing to help developing countries confront the challenges posed by climate change. The idea is to create a “Green Fund†with the capacity to raise resources on a scale commensurate with the Copenhagen Accord ($100 billion a year by 2020)....

We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv)...

Stage 2 of monetary union in the Europe is to involve greater monetary cooperation; the paper examines the case for using the M3 money supply aggregated across “core ERM” countries- -those with low inflation and absence of realignments- -as a vehicle for that cooperation. First, the...

Evaluation of policy rules using empirical macroeconomic models is usually done on the assumption that the rules are perfectly credible. However, there are usually circumstances that cause the authorities to abandon any given rule. The public's expectations reflect this possibility. In the...

International macroeconomic policy coordination is generally considered to be made less likely—and less profitable—by the presence of uncertainty about how the economy works. The present paper provides a counter-example, in which increased uncertainty about portfolio preference of investors...

Cotton production in West and Central Africa (WCA) has contributed to growth and poverty reduction. Recently, the objective of poverty alleviation has been adversely impacted by the downward pressures on world prices (exacerbated by subsidies by major cotton producers outside Africa). Several...

Evaluations of European monetary integration using model simulations have given conflicting results, and the paper attempts to elucidate the reasons for the differences. Several features stand out: how to model realignments; how monetary policy is set for individual countries or for Europe; and...