This collection of papers analyzes the versatility and predictive power of survey expectations data in asset pricing and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment...

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960-2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the...

The price of aggregate risk in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several...

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960 - 2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the...

We examine the relation between US stock market returns and the US business cycle for the period 1960-2003 using a new methodology that allows us to estimate a time-varying equity premium. We identify two channels in the transmission mechanism. One is through the mean of stock returns via the...

There are a number of tests and measures of the degree of integration in the literature. An example is the idea that integrated markets should provide rates of return that are highly correlated with one another and that a measure of correlation provides an appropriate test. This particular idea...

There are very few estimates of a time-varying equity risk premium based on models that satisfy a no-arbitrage condition. The main aim of this paper is to estimate the US and UK equity risk premia implied by a number of well-known asset pricing models using monthly data for 1975-2001. The models...

This paper develops the CCAPM model to allow for long-run risk in durable consumption. Allowing Epstein-Zin preferences to incorporate non-separability of durable and non-durable consumption in utility provides for an Euler equation which can be shown to provide a much better explanation of...

The equity premium in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several classifications...

This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We...