Stock market return is one of financial variables that contain information to forecast real activity such as industrial production and real GDP growth. However, it is still controversial that stock market return can have a predictive content on real activity. This paper attempts to investigate...

We introduce a blocking and regularization approach to estimate high-dimensional covariances using high frequency data. Assets are first grouped according to liquidity. Using the multivariate realized kernel estimator of Barndorff-Nielsen, Hansen, Lunde, and Shephard (2008a), the covariance...

The aim of the paper is to compare reactions of two stock markets, the German and the French, to releases of macroeconomic fundamentals emanating from Germany and the U.S. We examine the reaction of intraday returns and volatility of the CAC40 and the DAX indices to macroeconomic surprises. We...

Long memory is a stylized fact found in most financial return series. In this paper, we seek to examine the impact of the presence of long memory on the dependence structure. First, we fit the multivariate dependence structure using R-vine copulas for pairs of raw and filtered returns. Second,...

We use a new framework to analyze the liquidity trends in the US equity markets, based on the intra-day price trend. The analysis suggests that the proportion of daily price variation explained by jumps (either small or large) is at a historical low. Furthermore while small jumps (which are...

In this paper, we propose three new predictive models: the multi-step nonparametric predictive regression model and the multi-step additive predictive regression model, in which the predictive variables are locally stationary time series; and the multi-step time-varying coefficient predictive...

The main objective of this paper is to assess how mutual information as a measure of global dependence between stock markets and macroeconomic factors can overcome some of the weaknesses of the traditional linear approaches commonly used in this context. One of the advantages of mutual...