Market expectations of future return volatility play a crucial role in finance; so too does our understanding of the process by which information is incorporated in security prices through the trading process. This paper seeks to learn something about both of these issues by investigating...

This paper develops an augmented Artificial Neural Network forecast-simulation procedure for estimating both the current fundamental price of a financial asset and the state-dependent distribution (including volatilities) from which future returns will be fundamentally drawn. The results provide...

This paper investigates the ex post rational price of Shiller (1981) to determine if it is a reliable guide to fundamental valuations of dividend-yielding assets. The ex post rational price is widely used to determine whether stock market price movements are rational responses to market news or...

This paper uses the ordered logit regression combining method to form consensus forecasts from different individual bond rating forecasts, to predict bond ratings in the transportation and industrial sectors form Moody's bond rating service.