Este es material de curso para un curso introductorio a la Probabilidad y la Estadistica en Ingenieria y Administracion. Es parte de algunas notas de clases de mis cursos en Español sobre esos temas. Cuando se toman decisiones y existen eventos futuros y desconocidos la unica razon por la cual...

In this teaching note we show how to use sensitivity analysis to consider uncertainty in the valuation of cash flows. We illustrate in a very simple way the use of the traditional identical percent change in the variables and an approximate approach that considers the probability of occurrence...

Se muestran detalladamente las diferentes herramientas (formulas y funciones de hoja de calculo) para el manejo de la conversion de sumas de dinero en diferentes periodos de tiempo.

In this teaching note I make a short review of the major statistics regarding the non traded firms in the U.S. and in Colombia as an example of an emerging market. I show some alternatives to estimate the cost of equity capital when there is not enough trading information. Some of them use the...

When forecasting financial statements care has to be taken to construct a consistentand correct model. This is not an easy task. Even the most experienced expert in modelingmakes mistakes. This is especially relevant when we construct a financial model withoutplugs and without circularity. In...

In this work we explore the effect of book value leverage upon some financial indexes, such as real growth, payment terms from suppliers and gross and operating margins. We explore if there is statistical evidence on the influence of the book value leverage level in the financial distress or...

The purpose of this paper is twofold: the first purpose is to tell a naive history of an experience in constructing knowledge. In this first part I tell how I approached the process to solve the inconsistency between the net present value, NPV, the internal rate of return, IRR and the...

Using the model proposed by Velez-Pareja (2006) and assuming straight line depreciation we examine the conditions to assure a constant growth rate in a growingperpetuity. Our findings are that in practical terms for a growing perpetuity there are two options: either depreciation life is one year...