En este documento se utiliza la metodología FAVAR (factor augmented VAR) para evaluar el impacto de variaciones no esperadas en cuatro variables internacionales: las tasas de interés de corto plazo, el riesgo, el precio real del petróleo, el café y el carbón, y la actividad económica...

In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 - August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...

To date, there is still great controversy as to which exchange rate model should be used or which monetary channel should be considered, when measuring the effects of monetary policy. Since most of the literature relies on structural models to address identification problems, the validity of...

En este documento se discuten los distintos factores estructurales que podrían explicar la persistencia de la inflación y se evalúan formas alternativas de calcularla. Con base en las mejores" metodologías se presenta la evolución de la persistencia tanto para el nivel como para la brecha...

Existe una preocupación generalizada entre los economistas y los funcionarios de la política económica en el campo internacional acerca de la eventual insuficiencia del ahorro con respecto a las necesidades de un crecimiento económico alto y sostenido(2). En el caso colombiano la...

In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian...

We identified and estimated a SVAR model in the real and nominal exchange rates through the Blanchard and Quah decomposition. This enables us to provide results regarding the magnitude and length of nominal and real shock effects in the real and nominal exchange rate. We estimate that the...

El presente trabajo compara especificaciones lineales y no lineales (expresadas en redes neuronales artificiales) ajustadas a la variación porcentual diaria del tipo de cambio utilizando para ello funciones de costo tradicionales (simétricas) a la vez que se introduce el análisis asimétrico....

One of the principal issues of Colombian macroeconomic policy in the 1990s has been the deterioration of private savings (Figure 1). The decline in the private saving rate was usually related to consumers real expenditure, which grew by an average of 3.9% in the period 1991-1993, compared to...

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925- 2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per...