This paper assesses the contemporaneous, leading and lagging indicator properties of financial market variables relative to movements in six major developed country currency pairs. As indicator variables changes in various relative asset prices, short-term portfolio flows and currency options...

We develop an N-country model with stock markets in which closed-form solutions for the real exchange rate is derived. Our model allows for a given number of risky-assets, which form an incomplete market. Risky asset prices and allocations of risky assets among countries are determined...

The paper discusses global imbalances under the aspect of an asymmetric world monetary system. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing...

This paper reviews three different concepts of equilibrium exchange rates that are widely used in policy analysis and constitute the backbone of the IMF CGER assessment: the Macroeconomic Balance, the External Sustainability and the reduced form approaches. We raise a number of econometric...

Global capital flows into emerging markets, including those in Asia, continue to be volatile. These capital flows generate both benefits and costs. The latter are associated with episodes of currency and banking crises like the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial and...

This study analyzes the dynamics between real effective exchange rates and current accounts from a novel perspective. We start by dissecting long-run and time-varying short-run dynamics as well as causalities between both variables. Following this, we extend our framework by including short-term...

This study aims to evaluate the vulnerability of the Turkish economy in the context of global crises during the 1998:01-2012:08 period employing signals approach improved by Kaminsky, Lizando and Reinhart (1998) [KLR]. Our study is necessary and timely to assess the fragility of Turkey since the...

MNB has received daily, transaction-level data on key Hungarian interest rate derivatives markets since the beginning of 2009 with the launching of the K14 report. The dataset that has accumulated since early 2009 provides an opportunity to better comprehend the structure and functioning of...

This paper investigates the dynamic linkages between portfolio flows and various news indices (based on both "positive" and "negative" news headlines collected from Bloomberg), whilst also controlling for a comprehensive set of push and pull factors. The monthly panel examined comprises 49...

In Croatia and other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, as a consequence of deep financial integration and abolition of capital controls, considerable loans to households indexed to the Swiss franc have emerged. Although all of researchers of the Swiss franc do not agree entirely on...