A dynamic linear model for data revisions and delays is proposed. This model extends Jacobs & Van Norden's [13] in two ways. First, the "true" data series is observable up to a fixed period of time M. And second, preliminary figures might be biased estimates of the true series. Otherwise, the...

Preliminary and delayed Colombian GDP reports are replaced with optimal in-sample now-casts of "true" GDP figures derived from a model for data revisions. The new GDP time series is augmented with optimal out-of-sample forecasts and back-casts of the "true" GDP figures derived from the same...

This paper shows that the Colombian sovereign risk (EMBI?Colombia) is mainly determined by international investors’ risk appetite, whose response is non?linear and depends on the government fiscal stance. It is also shown that the relationship between these variables experienced an important...

Due to the fact that many reliable indicators of further inflationary pressures do not seem to work anymore, finding whether or not wages Granger cause prices is an important concern for policymaking. However, international evidence on the relationship between wages and prices does not show...

A pesar de que en Colombia se acepta la intuición de que "el nivel medio de la inflación anual no cambia durante lapsos de tiempo muy largos", también parece tener alguna acogida la afirmación que esta "tiene una raíz unitaria". La percepción general se basa en que desde 1954 hasta 1971 la...

As originally drawn and estimated by professor Phillips, the Phillips curve is a curve indeed, not a straight line as often thought. Following Laxton, et. al. (1999)we estimate a convex Phillips curve and model the NAIRU as a variable that is unobserved. Using Colombian data, we provide...

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of inflation targeting in small open economy. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and present the response of some macroeconomic variables to different types of shocks that are relevant for emerging economies. We also...

En esta nota se reportan los resultados de un ánalisis empírico de la relación entre la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República con las tasas de interés del mercado. El objeto es comparar esta relación antes y despúes del abandono de la banda cambiaria en 1999. La base de datos...

En este artículo se discute la importancia de la curva spot (cero cupón), así como las consideraciones que deben realizarse para escoger un conjunto de métodos de estimación que suplan las múltiples necesidades a las que se enfrenta un inversionista o especulador - valoración de activos y...

Most of the proposed macro models and Phillips curves for policy design and analysis in Colombia depend on estimates of the potential output. However, it is widely known that this estimates are highly unreliable because of its level of estimation uncertainty. Following Staiger et al.(1996), we...