The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial …

closely the estimated predictions match the objectively correct predictions. We find that all methods do reasonably well when …

probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market. … shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on … Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea …

of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem …

multivariate probability model-and their application to studying the determinants of banking crises. The use of these models to …

contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not … require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from … structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work …