Did the 2008 rebate fail to stimulate consumer spending? In their influential AER articles, John Taylor and Martin Feldstein each claim that BEA aggregate time series data show that the 2008 rebate failed. Re-examining the BEA data, we find that the data instead show there is a high probability...

The authors analyze several reasonable policy options for pay-as-you-go Social Security that might be adopted in response to a temporary demographic bulge. The bulge generation enters the economy, works, retires, andexits the economy. Three of the policies maintain a balanced budget. Under the...

Did the 2008 rebate fail to stimulate consumer spending? In their recent influential AER articles, John Taylor and Martin Feldstein each claim that BEA aggregate time series data show that the 2008 rebate failed. Re-examining the BEA data, we find that the data instead show there is a high...

One criterion for evaluating a nation's military structure is its impact on crisis stability. This article presents a model to capture the process of interacting expectations that determines whether initial suspicions are sufficient to cause one or both nations to strike rather than wait during...