Our objective in this paper is to estimate the external finance premium (EFP), which is a non observable variable, of firms in Brazil using state space models. For this purpose, we built an original database with confidential and public data containing balance sheet information of 5,026 public...

This paper estimates optimal capital flow taxes for Latin American economies based on early warning models for sudden stops. The paper adopts the externality view advanced by Korinek (2010), according to which domestic agents do not internalize the costs of high debt in bad states of nature....

This paper investigates Brazilian exporter's pricing behavior, over the longrun, following destination specific exchange rate shocks. The panel cointegration method of Bai, Kao and Ng (2009) is shown to identify the long-run parameter of interest. The method crucially depends on identification...

I assess the optimal policy to be followed by a welfare-concerned central bank when assigned an inflation target that is not necessarily welfare-optimal. I treat the inflation target as the trend inflation and I have three main contributions: (i) a welfare-based loss function fully derived under...

In this article we study the deposit-taking and lending behavior of Brazilian banks before and after the subprime crisis. The distribution of both series present changes between these two periods. In addition, we implemented a vector autoregression model in order to construct the impulse...

In this paper, we suggest that the regulation of the financial system, especially if the aim is to prevent financial crises, should be focused on dealing with the consequences of the crises, not on trying to avoid their causes, although it may seem counterintuitive at first sight. Contrary to...

This paper investigates the transmission channel of macroprudential instruments in a closed-economy DSGE model with a rich set of financial frictions. Banks' decisions on risky retail loan concessions are based on borrowers' capacity to settle their debt with labor income. We also introduce...

In this paper, we construct several multi-step-ahead density forecasts for the foreign exchange (FX) rate based on statistical, financial data and economic-driven approaches. The objective is to go beyond the standard conditional mean investigation of the FX rate and (for instance) allow for...

This policy paper reviews the rationale for emerging market economies adopting macroprudential policies in an unstable global environment. Monetary policy in these economies is discussed with reference to its complex interaction with global events and spillovers. In particular, the paper...

We developed an endogenous testing strategy for finding contagion within stock markets indices, Credit Default Swaps spreads and banking sector indices. We present evidence of strong contagion in specific cases and markets and show an analysis of contagion to Brazil. Our results are important...