We consider a special class of multiple testing problems, consisting of M simultaneous point hypothesis tests in local statistical experiments. Under certain structural assumptions the global hypothesis contains exactly one element v* (say), and v* is least favourable parameter configuration...

This paper proposes a new statistical technique for deciding which of two theories is better supported by a given set of data while allowing for the possibility of drawing no conclusion at all. Procedurally similar to the classical hypothesis test, the proposed technique features three, as...

We consider a cross-calibration test of predictions by multiple potential experts in a stochastic environment. This test checks whether each expert is calibrated conditional on the predictions made by other experts. We show that this test is good in the sense that a true expert - one informed of...

Marketers often use A/B testing as a tool to compare marketing treatments in a test stage and then deploy the better-performing treatment to the remainder of the consumer population. While these tests have traditionally been analyzed using hypothesis testing, we re-frame them as an explicit...

A novel simulation-based methodology is proposed to test the validity of a set of marginal time series models, where the dependence structure between the time series is taken ‘directly' from the observed data. The procedure is useful when one wants to summarize the test results for several...

Abstract A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn...

Using properties of the cdf of a random variable defined as a saddle-type point of a real valued continuous stochastic process, we derive first-order asymptotic properties of tests for stochastic spanning w.r.t. a stochastic dominance relation. First, we define the concept of Markowitz...

When benchmarking production units by non-parametric methods like data envelopment analysis (DEA), an assumption has to be made about the returns to scale of the underlying technology. Moreover, it is often also relevant to compare the frontiers across samples of producers. Until now, no exact...