We investigate four sources of uncertainty with CPB’s macroeconomic model SAFFIER: provisional data, exogenous variables, model parameters and residuals of behavioural equations. Uncertainty is an inherent attribute of any forecast. We apply a Monte Carlo simulation technique to...

This paper explains bilateral services trade using a gravity equation and compares the results with trade in goods. We analyse bilateral trade between the provinces of Canada and between the member states of the European Union. We conclude that the gravity equation explains the variability in...

The dynamic effects from EU membership are crucial for the new member states to catch up with the average income level in the old member states. To gauge the dynamic effects, we follow a two-step procedure in which a gravity equation for bilateral trade shows the trade effect of EU membership...

The market for higher education increasingly becomes an international market. Nowadays, the number of students studying abroad is substantial and increasing. Many governments stimulate students to study abroad by offering a wide range of grants. However, little is known on the returns to...

Unemployment rates as well as incomes per capita differ vastly across the regions of Europe. Labour mobility can play a role in resolving regional disparities. This paper focuses on the questions why labour mobility is low in the EU and how it is possible that it remains low. We explore...

This paper quantifies lifetime redistribution in Dutch occupational pension schemes associated with uniform pricing. Information about the extent of redistribution is important because it will influence the public acceptance of the pension system. The uniform contribution rate is split up into...

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has been involved in econometric model building since its foundation in 1945. During the 60 years of model building and use reviewed in this Discussion Paper, CPB's models have evolved significantly. Over this period, a shift of...

We discuss and apply a new measure of competition: the elasticity of a firm's profits with respect to its cost level. A higher value of this profit elasticity (PE) signals more intense competition. Using firm level data we compare PE with the most popular competition measures such as the price...

This paper is the first that applies a recently introduced measure of competition, the Boone indicator, to the banking industry. This approach is able to measure competition of bank market segments, such as the loan market, whereas many well-known measures of competition can consider the entire...

In this paper, we measure the effectiveness of the Dutch public employment service (PES) for various performance measures, ranging from outflow rates to the timeliness of the benefits allocation. Using unique administrative monthly data from local PES offices during 2004, we exploit the fact...