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The present value tests of intertemporal model of the current account usually assume that all goods are traded and that aggregate consumption decisions can be closely approximated by a random walk process. This paper extends these models by explicitly introducing durables and nontraded goods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005146811
the causal connection between lack of exposure to commercial trade and proclivity to sudden stops. On the theoretical … front, I show how exposure to trade raises the creditworthiness of countries and reduces the probability of sudden stops. In … debt is more attractive. Therefore, conditional on the amount that lenders are willing to loan, decreased exposure to trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003258546
formation on current account fluctuations in typical small open economies, Canada and the United Kingdom. Results reveal no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013138440
habit formation on current account fluctuations in a typical small open economy, Canada, by a Bayesian calibration approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014225119
Using a Monte Carlo approach, we evaluate the small-sample properties of four different tests of the present-value model (PVM) of the current account: the non-linear Wald, linear Wald, Lagrange multiplier, and likelihood ratio tests. We find that the non-linear Wald test is biased towards...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014057119
This paper gauges the causal relationship between external and budget deficits by using Blanchard's overlapping generations model. This model tests the twin deficits hypothesis (i.e., there is a positive relationship between the deficits) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (i.e., there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109550
Global current account imbalances are one of the key macroeconomic imbalances that underlie the global financial crisis. The central objective of this paper is to analyze the causes and consequences of global imbalances from the perspective of developing Asia. More specifically, we examine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832220
We use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to study how removing barriers to competition in the nontraded goods sector affects the current account of a small open economy. We show that the expansion of the nontraded sector that results from such a "deregulation shock" is associated with an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011397737
Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990's. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We add...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010199563
We develop a three-country, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model to study the effects of changes in both personal and functional income distribution on national current account balances. Each country has a household sector and a non-household (corporate) sector. The household sector is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010201629