retirement spells has been steadily increasing. We estimate the response of retirement timing to variations in unemployment rate …, inflation and housing prices. Flows into both full and partial retirement increase significantly when the unemployment rate … rises. Workers around normal retirement age are especially sensitive to variations in the unemployment rate. Workers who are …

In recessions, unemployment increases despite the - perhaps counterintuitive - fact that the number of unemployed … workers finding jobs expands. On net, unemployment rises only because even more workers lose their jobs. We propose a theory … of unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In …

The natural rate hypothesis states that there exists an unemployment rate at which inflation is stable, and that this … unemployment rate is independent of aggregate demand shocks. The hysteresis hypothesis, in contrast, states that the long run … unemployment rate can be affected by aggregate demand shocks. While policy makers have warned of the risk of hysteresis since the …

Several recent studies show that seasonal variation and cyclical variation in unemployment are correlated. A common … seasonal adjustment on the analysis of cyclical patterns. Seasonally adjusted quarterly unemployment data for 5 G-7 countries …

We combine micro and macro unemployment duration data to study the effects of the business cycle on the outflow from … unemployment. We allow the cycle to affect individual exit probabilities of unemployed workers as well as the composition of the … total inflow into unemployment. We estimate the model using (micro) survey data and (macro) administrative data from France. …

This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman … flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism … thus increases labor demand, which in turn reduces unemployment. We use the comparative-statistics predictions of the model …

volatility of vacancies and unemployment. This channel can be relevant if the lack of insurance is large enough so that the … earnings variance and persistence in the unemployment state that result in a large degree of self-insurance. …

unemployment and output fluctuations. The central question is whether the rule based component (i.e., the existence of the … our baseline scenario the rule based component stabilizes unemployment fluctuations by 15% and output fluctuations by 7 … significant effect on unemployment. These effects are based on a structural VAR estimation which is identified using the output …