The Value-at-Risk (VAR) measurements are widely applied to estimate exposure to market risks. The traditional approaches to VAR computations - the variance-covariance method, historical simulation, Monte Carlo simulation, and stress-testing - do not provide satisfactory evaluation of possible...

We show the importance of a dynamic aggregation bias in accounting for the PPP puzzle. We prove that established time-series and panel methods substantially exaggerate the persistence of real exchange rates because of heterogeneity in the dynamics of disaggregated relative prices. When...

Recently, Vogelsang (1999) proposed a method to detect outliers which explicitly imposes the null hypothesis of a unit root. It works in an iterative fashion to select multiple outliers in a given series. We show, via simulations, that under the null hypothesis of no outliers, it has the right...

We propose residual based tests for cointegration using local GLS detrending (Elliott, Rothemberg and Stock (1996), ERS) to eliminate separately the deterministic components in the series. We consider two cases, one where only a constant is included and one where a constant and a time trend are...