This paper considers the case of Bayesian learning about the relationship between the greenhouse-gas level and temperature rise. Learning takes time because of a stochastic shock to the realized global mean temperature. The paper illustrates the difficulty of quickly learning about the...

This paper presnets a method for simultaneously estimating a system of nonparametric multiple regressions which may seem unrelated, but where the errors are potentially correlated between equations. We show that the prime advantage of estimating such a 'seemingly unrelated' system of...

A systems approach is applied to UK personal sector holdings of unit trusts, UK company securities, public-sector long-term debt and overseas securities. In the long run, asset holdings are determined primarily by hedging considerations but in the short run there is evidence of speculative...

A unit root test is usually carried out by using the regression test introduced by Dickey and Fuller (1979). Under the null hypothesis the series should be a random walk. But a non-stationary series can usually be decomposed into a random walk and a stationary component. This is what is done in...

Most confidence intervals, whether based on asymptotic theory or the bootstrap, are implicitly based on inverting a Wald test. Since Wald test statistics are not invariant under nonlinear reparametrizations of the restrictions they test, confidence intervals based on them are not invariant...

We consider truncated processes, both in discrete and continuous time, and study their dynamic properties. When the underlying process is a diffusion process, we derive the infinitesimal generator of its truncated counterpart. This result is the basis for the estimation of the drift and...