This paper is an expository review of recently developed techniques that are designed to evaluate macroeconomic policy using econometric models ; The exposition focuses on dynamic stochastic models with rational expectations and with discrete time. The method of undetermined coefficients is used...

Cross-sectional regression analyses of wage gaps may be biased by omission of unobserved worker characteristics. Recent studies therefore have used longitudinal data to "difference out" the effects of such variables. This paper. however. shows that self-selection of job changers may cause...

In this paper, we consider the parametric estimation problem for continuous time stochastic processes described by general first-order nonlinear stochastic differential equations of the Ito type. We characterize the likelihood function of a discretely-sampled set of observations as the solution...

This paper assesses the small sample properties of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) based Wald statistics. The analysis is conducted assuming that the data generating process corresponds to (i) a simple vector white noise process and (ii) an equilibrium business cycle model. Our key findings...

Economists are quick to assume opportunistic behavior in almost every walk of life other than our own. Our empirical methods are based on assumptions of human behavior that would not pass muster in any of our models. The solution to this problem is not to expect a mass renunciation of data...

This paper provides asymptotic confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of a time series when this root is close to one. The intervals are readily constructed either graphically or using tables in the Appendix. When applied to the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data set, the main...

This paper explores an econometric estimation technique for dynamic linear models. The method combines the analytics of moving average solutions to dynamic models together with computational advantages of the Whittle likelihood. A hypothesis of interest to international and financial economists...

Standard sufficient conditions for identification in the regression discontinuity design are continuity of the conditional expectation of counterfactual outcomes in the running variable. These continuity assumptions may not be plausible if agents are able to manipulate the running variable. This...

Asymptotic variance of estimated parameters in models of conditional expectations are calculated analytically assuming a GARCH process for conditional volatility. Under such heteroskedasticity, OLS estimators or parameters in single-period models can posses substantially larger asymptotic...

An important practical objective of empirical studies of treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. Often the decision maker is a planner who must choose treatments for the members of a heterogeneous population; for example, a physician may...