This paper considers the Bayesian analysis of threshold regression models. It shows that this analysis can be conducted with simple deterministic numerical integration in one or two dimensions. The shape of the posterior density is greatly determined by the type of threshold and of transition...

Ce travail propose un mecanisme nouveau permettant d'expliquer la presence de dependance temporelle dans les risques individuels de sortie du chomage. Lorsque les chomeurs sont ex ante heterogenes et que leur competence est imparfaitement observable, le licenciement des moins doues est un...

This paper shows that if domestic firms do not have identical unit costs, then the interplay between the Herfindahl index of concentration and the elasticity of the slope of the demand curve is of major importance in the determination of optimal trade policies. When the demand curve is concave,...