We examine the statistical determinants of transfer risk using probit estimation and an estensive data set of over 300 sovereign ratings given by the leading rating agencies between 1992-1997.

This paper presents the first systematic analysis of the determinants of local currency sovereign ratings and uses ordered probit estimation. We find no signifiant quantitative impact for the best theoretical indicators of local currency creditworthiness, the fiscal balance and the rate of...

Trading volume and order flow have both been closely associated with informed trader activity in the market microstructure literature. Using theory that explains regular intraday patterns in trading data, we transform these two variables into proxies for private information and examine their...

From Prof Steve Thomas and Mr Richard A. Werner.Sir, Mervyn King deserves praise for recognising that things could turn ugly when the housing bubble bursts ("King links rises in rates to fears on house prices", July 1). But is his recommended plan of action suitable - namely to raise interest...